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ONTARIO: New modelling forecasts 1,000 COVID cases per day next month

The new report looks at what a second wave of COVID-19 could mean for Ontario
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As Ontario experiences a second wave of COVID-19 cases, new modelling is showing what could be in store.

The new provincial modelling released today forecasts Ontario could be around 1,000 new cases per day in the first half of October. 

Recently, the number of COVID-19 cases in the province has surged. Earlier this week, a new-single day high was set when 700 new cases were reported.

To date, the province has reported 51,710 lab-confirmed cases of COVID-19. Of those 43,907 people have recovered and another 2,848 people have died. 

While the majority of the new cases have been in the 20 to 39 age group, the modelling shows the cases are climbing in all age brackets. 

For intensive care unit (ICU) beds, it notes the occupancy is steady, but is expected to rise with an increase of COVID-19 patients being hospitalized. If the number of new cases continues to grow, the report suggests the province may see 200 to 300 COVID-19 patients per day in ICU beds.

In a news release, Deputy Premier and Minister of Health Christine Elliott said the modelling shows the importance of sticking to public health measures.

"Over the summer we saw how our collective efforts helped slow the transmission of COVID-19, we must not let our guard down now as we head into the cold and flu season. We all need to do our part and continue to follow all public health measures in place to contain and stop the spread of the virus," she said.

In response to the spike in cases, the province recently changed the limits for social gatherings. The new limits are 10 people indoors and 25 people for outdoor gatherings. 

Last week, changes for restaurants and stip clubs also went into effect.

Restaurants and night clubs have to stop serving alcohol at 11 p.m. and close by midnight, and strip clubs have been closed.

 "We wanted to release this modelling to be open about the challenges our province faces, and the important work we all need to do to flatten the curve," said Dr. David Williams, Chief Medical Officer of Health, in the news release.



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Maija Hoggett

About the Author: Maija Hoggett

Maija Hoggett is an experienced journalist who covers Timmins and area
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